As the search for Nancy Guthrie enters its third week, questions surrounding a possible cross-border abduction continue to circulate. But new insights from security experts - along with statements from both U.S. and Mexican officials - are casting increasing doubt on the theory that she was taken into Mexico.
The 84-year-old was reported missing from her Tucson, Arizona home on February 1. Surveillance images released by the FBI show a masked individual outside her residence in the early morning hours. Blood was reportedly found on the porch, though authorities say none led away from the property.
Border Security Makes Mexico Scenario "Low Probability"
In the latest Nancy Guthrie update Mexico developments, retired NYPD Lt. Dr. Darrin Porcher told Fox News that the chances of a cross-border transport remain low.
Porcher pointed to enhanced security infrastructure near Nogales, Arizona - roughly 60 miles south of Tucson - including:
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A reinforced border wall lined with barbed wire
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Extensive surveillance camera systems
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U.S. Border Patrol vehicles stationed in close proximity
"When we look at how the border wall is aligned, it seems very difficult to get across from the United States into Mexico because this is not a porous environment," Porcher said.
Authorities have consistently stated they have no evidence that Guthrie was taken across the southern border.
Mexican Officials Dispute FBI Collaboration Claims
Further narrowing the Mexico theory, officials in Sonora have publicly stated that they have not received a formal request for collaboration from U.S. authorities regarding the case.
Mexico's Secretary of Security, Omar García Harfuch, confirmed there is "no line pointing to Sonora" and said no joint investigative group is working on that angle within Mexico.
These statements appear to reinforce law enforcement's position that there is currently no verified indication of cross-border involvement.
Cartel Theory Emerges - But Not Across the Border
At the same time, a private investigator has introduced another theory suggesting the case could involve individuals linked to cartel-related activity. However, even that theory does not support the idea that Guthrie was transported into Mexico.
The investigator argued that southern Arizona is known as a high drug and money transport corridor and suggested she may still be somewhere within the state. Authorities have not publicly endorsed this claim.
Investigation Remains Active
Officials have ruled out a burglary gone wrong, and the motive remains unclear. Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos has previously said investigators are exploring multiple possibilities but have not confirmed any connection to Mexico.
For now, despite ongoing speculation online, law enforcement maintains that there is no confirmed evidence supporting the cross-border abduction theory.
As the search continues, investigators are urging the public to rely on verified updates while they pursue leads in what remains a complex and developing case.
Related: Why the FBI Contacted Mexican Authorities?
